4 things to watch out for on the last day of the 2022 primaries

On Tuesday, Granite State Republicans hope to flip key Senate and House seats held by Democrats, but, as it has been a theme all year, they could see those ambitions tempered if candidates the party considers most viable in a general election are not the choice of primary voters most aligned with former President Donald Trump’s politics.

In Rhode Island, the action is largely focused on the race for governor. Governor Dan McKee is seeking a first full term after replacing Gina Raimondo, who left office to join the Biden administration last year. He faces two or three legitimate contenders.

There will also be a vacant seat to fill the state’s 2nd congressional district, following Rep. Jim Langevin’s announcement that he will retire at the end of this term. The winner of the primary could face a competitive race in the fall.

Delaware will also vote Tuesday, though it is home to only one contested statewide race, the Democratic primary for auditor. The House primary has been cancelled, and Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester will face Republican Lee Murphy in a rematch of their clash in the 2020 general election.

Here are four things to watch on the last day of the 2022 primary:

Republicans sweat NH GOP Senate primary

It’s been a rough few months for Republicans seeking to control the Senate in January. And Tuesday’s primary could be the coup de grâce.

Many Republicans are concerned that Don Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2020, could win Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary, setting off a frenzy of foreign spending by Republicans. Republicans seeking to boost Chuck Morse, the state Senate president and establishment favorite.

Bolduc has shown little ability to raise money (he had raised less than $600,000 as of August 24, compared to Hassan’s $31.4 million) and has a propensity to speak provocatively, and even Republican agents who know him well they describe him as a “loser”. Canyon.”

“He is not a serious candidate. He really isn’t,” popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu told WGIR in August. “If he were the candidate, I have no doubt it would be much more difficult for us to try to win that seat back. So I don’t take him seriously as a candidate. I don’t think most people do.”

To help Morse, Sununu endorsed Morse days before the primary and recently spoke with Trump, urging him to enter the race. Trump has yet to endorse, but some Republicans in the state were concerned that he would endorse Bolduc.

an august Granite State Survey A survey by the University of New Hampshire found Bolduc ahead of Morse by 21 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters.

Swing seat Democrats await opponents in both New Hampshire House districts

In the Republican primary in New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, voters will decide whether mimicking Trump’s style is more effective than following his policies.

Republicans Matt Mowers and Karoline Leavitt are the favorites in the primaries. They both worked for Trump — Mowers on his 2016 campaign and at the State Department, and Leavitt in the White House press department — and both fully agree with the former president’s agenda.

But where Mowers is more careful and measured, Leavitt has largely imitated the harshness and aggression that defined Trump’s political style.

While Mowers said during a recent debate that he had “confidence in the New Hampshire election,” Leavitt pushed back on Trump’s election lies, stating that “the 2020 election was undoubtedly stolen from President Trump.” And when debate moderators asked if they would vote to impeach Biden, Mowers called hearings on the matter, where Leavitt unequivocally said yes.

Vote at the end of August found Mowers at 26% and Leavitt at 24%, well within the poll’s margin of error. A significant 26% of likely Republican primary voters were undecided in the race. However, the differences could matter. The duo are vying to take on Democrat Chris Pappas, one of the most vulnerable House Democrats in the country.

In the state’s other slightly more Democratic-friendly House district, Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster is running for a sixth term. She is likely to face Keene Mayor George Hansel or former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns, the main contenders in a packed Republican field.

Burns is the more conservative of the two (Hansel describes himself as “pro-choice”), prompting an outside Democratic group to spend on ads that ostensibly attacked him but were actually designed to raise his profile among Americans. Republicans. The district is widely considered a draw for now, but that could change with Tuesday’s results.

New Rhode Island Governor Gets First Test on Ballot

McKee took office last year during his second term as lieutenant governor following Raimondo’s departure to serve as commerce secretary for President Joe Biden.

McKee, who is running for a first full term in the top job, faces a handful of Democratic challengers, including Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea; former CVS Health executive Helena Foulkes; former Secretary of State Matt Brown, who leads a list of progressive candidates from top to bottom on the ballot with the goal of unseating establishment leaders; and Luis Daniel Muñoz, doctor.

McKee is considered a fringe favorite, with Gorbea the most likely to top him. The incumbent’s main weakness could be an ongoing federal investigation into a contract awarded by the state to a consulting firm with connections to a McKee ally. (The governor has denied any wrongdoing.)

Both McKee and Gorbea have been raised by Foulkes, who bolstered his account by putting more than $1 million of his own money into the campaign and, in an ad promoting his education policies, vowed not to seek re-election “if our children don’t come back.” “. on my way to the end of my term.

Gorbea, who is Puerto Rican, was the first Latina to win state office and would make history again if elected governor. The winner of the primary, no matter who emerges, will be a clear favorite over the Republican candidate.

Rhode Island Democrats choose their candidate for the Open House race

Langevin’s decision to withdraw from the 2nd District seat, which covers the western half of the state, at the end of his 11th term set off a raucous primary to take on presumptive Republican candidate Allan Fung, the former mayor of Cranston, who is running unopposed.

Rhode Island Treasurer General Seth Magaziner is the favorite in the Democratic race ahead of Election Day. He dropped a gubernatorial bid to run for the House seat, has Langevin’s endorsement and leads the field in fundraising.

Former state Rep. David Segal is the leading progressive in the race and has placed second overall along with Sarah Morgenthau, who served in the Obama and Biden administrations. She has argued that after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the time has come for the state to elect its first female Democrat to Congress.

But Morgenthau is not the only woman in the primary. Joy Fox, a former aide to Langevin and Raimondo, has touted her time working with the former governor.

The winner will be the favorite in a district Biden won in 2020. It is still more competitive than the first, where Democratic Rep. David Cicilline will be a heavy favorite over Republican Allen Waters, with both unopposed in the primaries.

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